(Bloomberg) -- Treasuries slipped ahead of a pivotal US jobs report as fresh fiscal concerns sparked a selloff in the UK bond market.
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US government debt slipped across the curve, pushing the yield on 30-year Treasuries about five basis points higher to 4.81%. The move was, in part, spillover from the UK, where yields on 30-year gilts jumped on concerns about Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’ future reignited questions over the nation’s fiscal position.
There are similar concerns about the outlook in the US, where on Tuesday the Senate passed President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax and spending bill that would add an estimated $3.4 trillion to the nation’s debt over a decade. The legislation is now in the hands of the House as Republicans rush to complete work on the legislation by a July 4 deadline set by the president.
“Investors are already pricing in the One Big Beautiful Bill, at least in some form,” Zachary Griffiths, head of investment-grade and macroeconomic strategy at CreditSights, told Bloomberg Television Wednesday. “We’re going to see more supply from the US and there’s concerns fiscally across the globe” including in the UK.
What Bloomberg strategists say ...
“With both UK and US fiscal trajectories in the spotlight and long-end yields rising accordingly, markets are recalibrating their view of the term premium - even as short-end expectations remain anchored by the potential for rate cuts.”
— Brendan Fagan, FX Strategist
Investors are shifting their focus to Thursday’s jobs report, the third and most comprehensive to be released this week on US labor market conditions. Traders reckon that if the data is weak enough the Fed could move up cuts. Following an ADP report on private sector payrolls on Wednesday that showed weakness in the market, they added to wagers on at least two cuts this year, with the first coming in September.
A “general softening trend among many labor market indicators is really the story,” said Angelo Manolatos, a rates strategist at Wells Fargo. “That softening likely puts the Fed in a position to cut rates later this year, likely starting in September.”
The prospect of Fed cuts propelled the Treasury market in June to its best monthly performance since February. Yields dropped last week to their lowest level in more than a month. And open interest data shows traders added new long positions into the recent bond market rally.
繼續閱讀“If there’s a material increase in the unemployment rate it will change the calculus in the market’s mind about the timing and pace of rate cuts,” said Dominic Konstam, head of macro strategy at Mizuho Securities USA.
--With assistance from Edward Bolingbroke and James Hirai.
(Updates prices starting in first paragraph.)
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The long-end of the US Treasury yield curve took a hit due to spillover effects from an intense UK selloff, signaling increased uncertainty in global markets and potential for further downward pressure on rates.
The collapse of US Treasuries at the long end reflects an unsettling spillover effect from abrupt UK selloff, highlighting heightened market volatility due to geopolitical risks and uncertainties.
