Tariff rush lifts ASEAN exports, but BofA warns payback looms in H2

Investing.com -- Bank of America has raised its GDP forecasts for Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and, to a lesser extent, Indonesia, saying the region heads into the second half with fewer downside risks than it faced in early April.

A short‑term surge in shipments to the United States, partly the result of firms rushing orders ahead of new tariff rules, has bolstered factory orders and lifted purchasing‑managers’ indices in Vietnam and Thailand.

Singapore has seen a jump in re‑exports bound for the U.S., while Malaysia and Vietnam logged wider gains in direct exports.

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Domestic demand also looks resilient. Unemployment across the six major ASEAN economies is below pre‑pandemic levels and governments have rolled out targeted fiscal measures while they monitor U.S. trade policy, BofA said.

Analyst cautioned that the front‑loading of orders is temporary and expects “eventual exports and inventory pay‑back” to weigh on growth from late 2025.

It left projections unchanged for the Philippines, which is less exposed to U.S. tariffs, and sees Thailand lagging as local factors drag on activity.

Inflation is forecast to stay within, or below, central‑bank comfort zones as subdued domestic demand caps price pressures. Food‑cost risks remain limited absent severe weather shocks.

Central banks retain an easing bias, but BofA expects deeper rate‑cut cycles at Bank Indonesia, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and the Bank of Thailand than at Bank Negara Malaysia and the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Vietnam’s State Bank is projected to keep policy steady after a series of earlier cuts.

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