South Korea's exports set to rebound in June, but tariff uncertainty weighs: Reuters poll

By Jihoon Lee

SEOUL (Reuters) -South Korea's exports likely rebounded in June on the back of strong tech demand, following a decline in May, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, though economists remain wary amid uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy.

Exports from Asia's fourth-largest economy are forecast to have risen 4.7% this month from a year earlier, according to a median of 10 economists in the survey conducted between June 23 and June 26.

Last month, South Korea's exports fell 1.3%, the first decline in four months, as shipments to both the U.S. and China weakened.

"Stronger-than-expected semiconductor sales are leading the rebound in exports," said Chun Kyu-yeon, an economist at Hana Securities.

In the first 20 days of this month, South Korea's exports rose 8.3%, driven by a 21.8% surge in semiconductor shipments and a 9.2% increase in car exports. Shipments to the U.S. rose, but those to China fell, according to early data.

South Korea's chief trade envoy visited the U.S. this week for trade talks with his counterparts and the two parties reaffirmed their commitment to reaching a deal on tariffs as soon as possible. The meeting was held two weeks ahead of the July 8 deadline set by Seoul and Washington at their first round of trade talks in late April.

South Korea has sought exemptions from U.S. President Donald Trump's high tariffs on imports of automobiles and steel products, as well as a 25% "reciprocal" levy on the Asian ally currently paused for negotiations.

"It is difficult to say downward trade pressure of tariff uncertainty has been settled," said Stephen Lee, an economist at Meritz Securities.

"In the third quarter, South Korea's export momentum is unlikely to be strong, except for semiconductors," Lee said.

According to the Bank of Korea, the impact of U.S. tariffs is expected to take effect on auto, steel and chip exports from the third quarter.

Meanwhile, imports are projected to have increased 6.9% in June - the fastest pace since July 2024 - after dropping 5.3% in May, according to the survey.

South Korea - the first major exporting economy to report trade figures each month - is scheduled to release data for June on Tuesday, July 1, at 9 a.m. (0000 GMT).

(Reporting by Jihoon Lee, Polling by Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan and Veronica Khongwir in Bengaluru; Editing by Harikrishnan Nair)