Amazon projected to ship more than USPS by 2028: Pitney Bowes

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Dive Brief:

• Amazon is expected to ship more U.S. parcels than the U.S. Postal Service by 2028, according to Pitney Bowes' 2024 Parcel Shipping Index.

• The index projects Amazon's logistics arm will ship 8.4 billion parcels domestically in 2028, surpassing USPS' 8.3 billion. Amazon is currently second in terms of U.S. market share by volume after surpassing UPS and FedEx in recent years.

• "Since we began tracking shipments in 2015, the parcel market had been dominated by the Big 3: FedEx, UPS, and USPS," Pitney Bowes said. "However, Amazon Logistics — once a small competitor — is closing the gap rapidly."

Amazon catching up to USPS

U.S. parcel volumes shipped since 2015, by carrier

Dive Insight:

Amazon is well-positioned to continue its blistering pace of volume growth, in part out of necessity. UPS plans to slash the amount of Amazon volume it delivers in half by next year as it prioritizes more profitable customer segments, pushing the e-commerce giant to lean on other delivery options.

For now, Amazon's delivery volume is largely contained to orders made on its online marketplace, but the company has been inching closer toward direct competition with FedEx and UPS via its Amazon Shipping service.

Amazon's ascent isn't the only concern for legacy parcel carriers. The market has remained highly competitive, leading to aggressive price discounts offered to shippers that have blunted the impact of increased surcharges. As a result, revenue per parcel dropped from $9.10 in 2023 to $9.09 in 2024, according to Pitney Bowes.

"This pricing pressure is largely driven by the rapid growth of alternative carriers, as well as USPS’ new low-cost shipping option, Ground Advantage," Pitney Bowes said.

Alternative delivery providers outside the big four are gaining volume as they expand coverage and strengthen their services. These carriers shipped 780 million U.S. parcels in 2024, up 22.6% year over year, Pitney Bowes said.

Meanwhile, the Postal Service is securing more direct customer contracts through Ground Advantage as part of its push to compete against FedEx and UPS. Pitney Bowes said USPS handled 6.9 billion parcels in 2024, the first time the agency has seen year-over-year volume growth since 2020.

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