Surprising jobs data shows economy in flux

Surprising jobs data shows economy in flux originally appeared on TheStreet.

It’s been one "strong job market report" after another. Investors continue dancing to that beat, as we stare down a record high for the S&P 500.

💵💰Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter💰💵

Mr. Market is brushing off any wobble in weekly unemployment claims as mostly seasonal noise. Peel back the curtain, however, and the continuing claims paint a more mixed story about a fragile economic state.

The latest jobless claims update drives that point home and could shake the economy.

The labor market’s bumpy ride of late

Over the past few months, weekly jobless claims in the U.S. have fallen in a pattern that gives off mixed signals.

In early April, initial claims nudged up to 223,000 in the week ending April 5. This represents a modest rise of 4,000, but economists expected the number to remain flat.

Businesses were already feeling the heat due to the threat of new tariffs, and March hiring numbers were underwhelming.

Just 228,000 jobs were added, with unemployment ticking up to 4.2%.

Related: Legendary fund manager issues stock market prediction as S&P 500 tests all-time highs

A few weeks later, in late April, things got shakier. Claims rose by 18,000 to 241,000, the highest they’d been in a couple of months.

Sure, spring breaks played a part, but beneath the surface, you had corporate America feeling the squeeze from tariffs.

May brought its mix of highs and lows as well. Things picked up strongly, with claims dropping by 13,000 to 228,000.

By mid-month, filings hovered around 229,000, but by May 24, claims shot up to 240,000, the biggest weekly spike in over a year.

It wasn’t just about the seasonal hires this time, though.

More on Markets:

• Housing market update spells more trouble

• Why Thursday's market bell might echo in history

• Wall Street veteran analyst who predicted stock market rally resets forecast

Layoffs were starting to impact areas like transportation and hospitality, once considered safe from recession talk.

And June’s data felt more like walking a tightrope. The month kicked off with claims climbing to 248,000, and up until last week, the four-week average crept up to 245,500, the highest it’s been in nearly two years.

That was all before today’s update, adding a new twist to the story.

Continuing claims hit 2021 highs, hinting at deeper workforce troubles

For the week ending June 21, initial jobless claims dropped to 236,000, 10,000 lower than the week before and below the 244,000 forecast.

That comes with a catch, though, as last week’s numbers were quietly revised to 246,000 — a soft win, at best.

Meanwhile, continuing claims surged by 37,000 to 1.974 million, the highest since late 2021.

Related: Tesla’s robotaxi finally launches, but there’s a twist

This clearly indicates that more folks are stuck on benefits significantly longer than expected, clipping away at their disposable incomes.

Unadjusted state filings dropped 4% to 227,080, again mostly in line with last year once you factor out seasonal noise.

Moreover, with the insured unemployment rate at 1.2%, things continue to look bleak for those already out of work.

Nevertheless, it seems the markets are shrugging off those darker themes.

S&P 500 futures briefly popped to 6,171 earlier today, topping the prior intraday record of 6,166. Hence, Mr. Market’s still buying the corporate resilience story, even as the jobless rolls tell a more cautionary tale.

Related: Gemini, ChatGPT may lose the AI war to deep-pocketed rival

Surprising jobs data shows economy in flux first appeared on TheStreet on Jun 26, 2025

This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jun 26, 2025, where it first appeared.