The Oklahoma City Thunder continued their impressive run in the 2025 NBA Finals, defeating the Indiana Pacers 120-109 in Game 5 on Monday night as 9.5-point favorites. The game exceeded the total for the second time in the series, and the public is firmly behind the Thunder, with 58% of bets and 61% of total dollars wagered on them at BetMGM sportsbooks. As the series heads to Game 6, handicapper Jon Metler of Yahoo Sports offers his thoughts on the game and a best bet. "It's an opportunity to win the NBA Finals on the road," Metler says. "If you're not leaning on the league MVP more than ever, I'll be stunned. Also, you don't think Shai Gilgeous-Alexander wants to put any Jalen Williams Finals MVP talk to bed in a potential closeout game?" Metler believes that the Pacers' defensive strategy of focusing on SGA and allowing free lanes to Williams is a losing one. With more attention likely going toward J-Dub after his 40-point performance in Game 5, he thinks this will open up the floor even more for SGA. The Haliburton injury also looms large in Game 6, and Metler thinks that if Haliburton is out or limited, Andrew Nembhard will end up guarding SGA for fewer minutes because they'll need Nembhard more on the offensive end. The Pacers will also likely lean into a smaller, more offensive lineup without Haliburton, which will only make the defense easier for SGA to exploit. Metler's best bet for Game 6 is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to score 35+ points (+110). He believes that even if Haliburton does play, his offensive game will be extremely limited against the elite perimeter defenders of the Thunder, and the Pacers will no doubt have to lean on someone else to run the offense. TJ McConnell initially jumps out as a potential candidate, but Metler thinks the usage will actually shift toward Nembhard, who has proven to be calm and collected handling the ball under pressure. Metler's second best bet is Andrew Nembhard to score 15+ points and have 6+ assists (+704). He believes that with Haliburton dealing with a calf injury, Nembhard's role could dramatically shift in Game 6. This is a low-risk, high-reward SGP versus a full-unit straight bet because we truly don't know Haliburton's status. If Haliburton is ruled out, this SGP won't be trading anywhere near +700 at game time. In summary, the Oklahoma City Thunder are favored to win Game 6 of the 2025 NBA Finals, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Andrew Nembhard are both strong betting options for those looking to capitalize on this opportunity. With a strong defensive strategy and a focus on their elite perimeter defenders, the Thunder are poised to take home the NBA Finals title in Game 6.
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