Only 14% odds of Powell leaving Fed Chair

Only 14% odds of Powell leaving Fed Chair originally appeared on TheStreet.

Jerome Powell's future as Federal Reserve Chair is increasingly under question, especially on Kalshi, a crypto prediction platform.

However, Kalshi bettors see only a 14% chance that Powell will be removed as Fed Chair by the end of the year, down nine points from the previous levels.

This shift comes amid rising speculation that President Donald Trump will soon announce his potential replacement well before the end of Powell's term in 2026.

If President Trump names a replacement who is more aggressive on interest rate cuts, crypto markets could see an accelerated fund inflow as investors seek higher returns on riskier assets.

This week, Trump publicly attacked Powell, saying he is "dumb, moron, and low IQ'" for waiting to cut interest rates, at the NATO summit in the Netherlands.

He also criticized the Federal Reserve's monetary policy as being unwilling to shed what Trump called unnecessary economic drag. Trump is also ratcheting up pressure on Congress to pass his new tax bill before the July 4 holiday.

Join the discussion with Scott Melker on the Roundtable here.

Trump's coupling of fiscal and monetary policy—his tax plan now gets pressure from the Federal Reserve—has created political tension and market fears about the independence of the Federal Reserve.

Due to high inflation and global economic uncertainties, the Fed maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% this month.

Powell has clarified, however, that the Fed's sole goal is to support a robust economy for the American people. He stated that "anything else is a distraction," highlighting the Fed's non-political nature.

Join the discussion with Mario Nawfal on the Roundtable here.

Dollar hits 3-year low

The U.S. dollar has also been affected by the current political uncertainty. The U.S. Dollar Index has dropped to a three-year low of 97.13, sparking concerns over capital flight and inflation. Meanwhile, crypto markets are holding ground.

Bitcoin remains above $107,000 as per Kraken's price page, representing a gain of over 250% in the past three years.

The U.S. Dollar Index, in turn, has dropped more than 10% in the past three years, demonstrating a behavioral change from investors with a greater commitment to decentralized assets during periods of fiscal unease.

It is difficult to know whether Trump will fire Fed Chair Powell. On Polymarket, another crypto prediction platform, names such as Chris Waller, Kevin Warsh, and Kevin Hassett are gaining popularity as potential successors.

For now, Powell is safe, but the markets are starting to position themselves differently.

Only 14% odds of Powell leaving Fed Chair first appeared on TheStreet on Jun 26, 2025

This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jun 26, 2025, where it first appeared.