Thunder vs. Pacers: Offensive Firepower vs. Defensive Shine in the 2025 NBA Finals
The 2025 NBA Finals are finally here! Will the Thunder complete one of the greatest NBA seasons of all time, or will the Pacers pull off a major upset? Our writers break down the series and make their championship predictions. Vincent Goodwill: Tyrese Haliburton’s name is on a poster in OKC’s locker room, as a wanted man (sarcasm), and he’ll receive special attention from the league’s best defensive team. How will he handle it? It’s arguable he’s more important to the outcome of this series than even the MVP, because so much revolves around him. There’s no Jalen Brunson to hunt, no Mikal Bridges to torture. If he’s not the engine, the Pacers have a hard time scoring. If he’s supercharged, they have a shot—maybe a thin shot, but a shot. Tom Haberstroh: How can the Pacers get Tyrese Haliburton cooking? He’s largely been a nonfactor against OKC’s defense the past two seasons, averaging just 12 points per game in four matchups. He’s proved the doubters wrong all postseason long, so I wouldn’t count out Haliburton in this series. But getting an aggressive Hali will go a long way toward upsetting the Thunder. Dan Devine: Can the Pacers get enough stops against the Thunder offense to stay connected? For all the focus on the other side of the ball—on the strength vs. strength matchup of Indiana’s fast-paced offense against Oklahoma City’s high-pressure defense—OKC swept the regular-season series largely by scoring 123.5 points per 100 possessions against the Pacers defense. Newly crowned MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to get his. Can Indiana find a way to limit Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and the rest of Oklahoma City’s supporting cast enough to keep the games tight and give its elite crunch-time attack an opportunity to tilt the run of play? Dan Titus: Ratings, ratings, ratings. But no, seriously, which bench unit will truly swing the Finals? Both the Pacers and Thunder utilized deep rotations to achieve success in the postseason. Rick Carlisle and Mark Daigneault masterfully adjust their lineups to match their opponents. The minutes that X-factors like Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Benedict Mathurin, T.J. McConnell or Obi Toppin provide could tip the scale of a game or even a championship. Ben Rohrbach: Can Indiana's defense withstand Oklahoma City's offensive firepower? We talk a lot about Indiana's high-powered offense (for good reason) and even more about OKC's top-rated defense (for good reason), but the Thunder play with pace and score in bunches, too. Can Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith stay in front of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander without fouling? Is Myles Turner a formidable enough last line of defense? Can everyone else stay home on Oklahoma City's shooters? It is a lot to account for, and that is just in the halfcourt. God forbid the Thunder catch your defense in transition.
Rohrbach: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. If he were to win the title and capture Finals MVP honors, he would become only the third guard in NBA history to seize both the regular-season and Finals MVP awards in the same season, joining Michael Jordan and Magic Johnson. He would join Jordan as the only guards ever to hold a scoring title and Finals MVP honors at once. In his wake on the all-time list of point guards would be Chris Paul, Steve Nash and John Stockton. Ahead of him would only be Johnson, Stephen Curry, Isiah Thomas and Bob Cousy—the multi-time champions. This is the company he could keep with a win.
