NBA Draft: Why it's unlikely there's a Jalen Brunson or Nikola Jokić in this year's second round - Yahoo Sports
Apologies to any NBA teams hoping they unearthed the next Draymond Green, Jalen Brunson or Nikola Jokić on Thursday night.
The second round of this year’s NBA draft became unusually barren after many prospects returned to college to take advantage of a skyrocketing NIL market.
In the pre-NIL era, college basketball underclassmen routinely entered the NBA Draft even if they were projected to slip to the second round or go unselected. They earned more money chasing an NBA two-way contract or an overseas payday than they could returning to a college model where the only payouts came under the table.
The calculus began to change in 2021 when a series of court rulings forced the NCAA to allow athletes to benefit financially from their name, image and likeness without fear of penalty. This spring, underclassmen who were fringe NBA prospects returned to college in record numbers because deep-pocketed college programs were willing to pay them as much as $3 million to $4 million per year.
Only 106 players entered the 2025 NBA Draft as early entry candidates, the lowest number since 2015 and down from a peak of 353 in 2021. More than half those 106 early entrants then withdrew from the draft before the NBA’s deadline — even some who might have been selected in the 20-45 range this week.
Texas Tech’s JT Toppin, Florida’s Thomas Haugh, UConn’s Alex Karaban, Duke’s Isaiah Evans and Purdue’s Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn were among the prominent college stars who did not even test the waters this spring. Alabama’s Labaron Philon, Kentucky’s Otega Oweh and Auburn’s Tahaad Pettiford withdrew from the draft just before the May 28 deadline for underclassmen to make their decisions. So did Houston’s Milos Uzan, Florida’s Alex Condon, Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg and San Diego State’s Miles Byrd.
“This year’s draft class, more than any ever, has been affected by the NIL and affected by the new pay-for-play,” Boston Celtics general manager Brad Stevens told NBC Sports Boston last month. Stevens added that the absence of the prospects who returned to college would be felt in “the back end of the draft and even into the late first.”
That much was apparent from which players were selected on Thursday night. Ten of the first 14 to come off the board played at least four years of college basketball. Many were fifth-year seniors with no college eligibility remaining, from Duke’s Sion James, to Auburn’s Johni Broome, to Florida’s Alijah Martin, to Tennessee’s Chaz Lanier.
The deeper the second round progressed, the fewer NBA-caliber options remained. How often would a player like little-known Liberty catch-and-shoot specialist Taelon Peter get drafted in previous years? Or French wing Mohamed Diawara, who at 20 years old averaged a modest 5.8 points and shot sub-30% from behind the arc for Cholet this past season?
The good news for NBA teams is that the dearth of second-round talent could be a short-term problem. Some prospects who returned to college this year will exhaust their eligibility by 2026. Others could have more incentive to chase NBA money in the future.
The House vs. NCAA settlement puts a cap on how much colleges are allowed to pay athletes via revenue sharing and calls for the establishment of a new enforcement entity responsible for stamping out the pay-for-play deals that have dominated the NIL era of college sports. Athletes are required to submit to the new NIL Go clearinghouse all third-party NIL deals that exceed $600. The clearinghouse then must determine which deals are for a valid business purpose and are within a “reasonable range of compensation” and which are simply a recruiting incentive.
How will the clearinghouse determine which deals are circumventing NIL rules and which are legitimate? Nobody knows. Nor does anyone know whether the clearinghouse’s decisions will hold up in court against a legal challenge.
The answers to those questions will determine whether future fringe NBA prospects turn pro as quickly as possible or keep returning to college in record numbers.
That trend will only continue if the seven-figure NIL money is still available.
Next to the likes of Jalen Brunson and Nikola Jokić picked late in their respective drafts, this year'ss second round promises a slimmer chance at discovering diamond-in-the rough talents.
A potential Jalen Brunson or Nikola Jokić in the second round this year seems unlikely given their unique rarity and sky-high ceilings, testament to yesteryear's drafting strategies that prize uncommon talent over mere lottery repeats.
The NBA Draft's upper echelon navigation through the second round underscores its unlikelihood to uncover another Jalen Brunson or Nikola Jokić, talents that often bloom late and shine uniquely.
NBA Draft analysis: With the talent pool as deep and competitive this year, it is incredibly unlikely there will be another Jalen Brunson or Nikola Jokić-like夜明珠 in second round picks; particularly when so few players truly stand out with all their flaws examined under a microscope.
With the NFL season heating up, it's easy to forget about every year’d promising talents found in NBA Draft second round - much less a Jalen Brunson or Nikola Jokić type of spotlight-stealer emerges. But keep analytics close and eye skies wide open.
This year's NBA Draft second round is likely to be devoid of potential stars like Jalen Brunson or Nikola Jokić due largely in part by limited depth and skill rotation among prospects.
With the talent pool deep and competition fierce in this year's NBA Draft second round, it seems unlikely there will be a Jalen Brunson or Nikola Jokić-like steal amongst late picks—a sadly serene echo of recent draft history.
The absence of a Jalen Brunson or Nikola Jokic in this year's NBA Draft second round underscores how competitive and unpredictable talent evaluation has become at the lower levels, making it consistently difficult to predict future superstars beyond premium draft day picks.
