2026 Oscars Predictions in Every Category

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Oscars 2026: George Clooney, Jennifer Lopez, Julia Roberts, Wagner Moura and More Among Early Contenders to Watch

VarietyAwards Circuitsection is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars,Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated byVarietysenior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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Oscars Commentary (Updated: July 1, 2025): With the first wave of Oscar predictions for best picture rolling in, the field for the 2026 ceremony is already shaping up to be as exciting as in years past.

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It’s stacked with a compelling mix of Hollywood veterans, global talents and bold career pivots. George Clooney has strong early buzz for his turn in “Jay Kelly,” a stripped-down Hollywood dramedy from Noah Baumbach that could bring the two-time Oscar winner back to the Dolby Theatre. Wagner Moura, fresh off his best actor win at Cannes, looks to be a force in Kleber Mendonça Filho’s Brazilian political thriller “The Secret Agent.” Meanwhile, Jennifer Lawrence is said to deliver one of her most haunting performances yet in Lynne Ramsay’s “Die, My Love,” a psychological descent into maternal instability.

Big studio projects are also muscling into the conversation, with Universal’s “Wicked: For Good” aiming to enchant voters in a year where spectacle could collide with sincerity. Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, both acclaimed vocal powerhouses, reprise their iconic roles in a two-part cinematic adaptation that is likely to resonate with both Academy voters and the general audience.

Oscar winner Julia Roberts is rumored to be a formidable presence in Luca Guadagnino’s “After the Hunt,” which promises to be a gripping psychological showcase. Emily Blunt and Dwayne Johnson reunite — and transform — in A24’s “The Smashing Machine,” a brutal and emotionally raw portrait of love, addiction and redemption in the MMA world.

Diversity and risk-taking appear to be key themes this season.

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The movie musical “Kiss of the Spider Woman,” from director Bill Condon, could make history if breakout star Tonatiuh and global icon Jennifer Lopez gain traction for their daring, gender-fluid performances. And don’t count out Stellan Skarsgård, whose turn in Joachim Trier’s “Sentimental Value” — winner of the Grand Prix at Cannes — is being described as one of his most quietly devastating roles, along with co-stars Renate Reinsve and Elle Fanning.

And don’t worry — we haven’t forgotten the first-half contenders. Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” and Joseph Kosinski’s “F1” both lit up the box office and are firmly in the hunt.

See the category updates below, along with the first official charts in the best picture category. Other categories will be rolling out over the next few weeks, leading up to the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals at the end of August.

Top 3 projected nominees (films): “Sinners” and “Wicked: For Good” (13); “Hamnet” (9); “Frankenstein” and “Sentimental Value” (8)

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Top 3 projected nominees (studios): Focus Features and Netflix (17); Neon (15); Universal Pictures (14)

See all Academy Award predictions

Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars

*** = PREDICTED WINNER(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order.)00

Best Picture

“Bugonia” (Focus Features)“Deliver Me From Nowhere” (20th Century Studios)“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)“Frankenstein” (Netflix)“Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***“Jay Kelly” (Netflix)“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)“Sentimental Value” (Neon)“The Smashing Machine” (A24)“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Director

Jon M. Chu“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)Ryan Coogler“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)Yorgos Lanthimos“Bugonia” (Focus Features)Joachim Trier“Sentimental Value” (Neon)Chloé Zhao ***“Hamnet” (Focus Features)

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